With the thrilling race in Sao Paulo, Brazil, just around the corner, the 2024 Formula 1 season enters its culminating phase. With only four races to go, the outcome promises to be electrifying. What looked to be another year of absolute dominance for Max Verstappen has taken an unexpected turn, as his points lead has been significantly reduced in recent races.
Meanwhile, the fight for the constructors' title intensifies. McLaren has ousted Red Bull from the top spot and is now looking to consolidate its lead in this exciting season finale. However, Ferrari will not be far behind: after two consecutive victories, the Italian team has jumped into the fray, which promises to add even more drama to the upcoming races.
Day: Sunday, November 03.
Venue: José Carlos Pace Race Track.
Laps: 71.
Race Distance: 305.897 km (305.897 miles)
Length of the Circuit: 4,309 km.
Sao Paulo: A Circuit of History and Challenges
The track in Sao Paulo has witnessed great Formula 1 events since its birth as a Grand Prix in 1973. The driver with the most victories is Michael Schumacher (4) while Finland's Valtteri Bottas holds the record for the fastest lap, with an impressive time of 1:10.540 recorded in 2018 with Mercedes.
Interlagos is characterized by tricky corners that could give the illusion of having to brake much earlier, generating loss of valuable seconds, but at the same time a late deceleration could lead to an accident. The last corner of the circuit is particularly crucial: a fast exit is essential to take advantage of the long straight that follows, making balance in the line a fundamental aspect. Despite its short length, the circuit is a real delight for drivers.
This weekend, the excitement will be heightened by the inclusion of a Sprint race, offering drivers the opportunity to score additional points. However, this also means that they will only have one free practice to adjust their setups and maximize their performance.
Last 5 winners
- 2023 - Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
- 2022 - George Russell (Mercedes)
- 2021 - Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
- 2019 - Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
- 2018 - Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
Position Table
| Position | Drivers | Builders |
| #1 | Max Verstappen (362) | McLaren Mercedes (566) |
| #2 | Lando Norris (315) | Ferrari (537) |
| #3 | Charles Leclerc (291) | Red Bull (512) |
| #4 | Oscar Piastri (251) | Mercedes (366) |
| #5 | Carlos Sainz (240) | Aston Martin (86) |
Nothing to see here. just 16 F1 drivers inside a giant Ayrton Senna helmet 🤔#F1 #BrazilGP pic.twitter.com/tRRUJMLWsC
- Formula 1 (@F1) October 31, 2024
Ayrton Senna: A Tribute in his Homeland
It is impossible to talk about the Sao Paulo Grand Prix without remembering Brazilian legend Ayrton Senna, three-time world champion. One of the most memorable stories in motorsport took place in 1991, when Senna started from pole position. After 65 intense laps, he faced gearbox problems in the rain, but despite the adversities, he managed to maintain his lead and cross the finish line in first place. It was his first victory at home, a moment so emotional that, exhausted, he could barely lift the trophy.
This year marks the 30th anniversary of his tragic death at Imola in the San Marino Grand Prix, so the Sao Paulo race is the perfect setting to pay tribute to him in front of a devoted Brazilian fan base.
As part of the tributes, the driver who achieves Pole Position will receive a Pirelli trophy decorated with the colors of Senna's helmet. In addition, the top three on the podium will receive caps inspired by his iconic design.
Also, seven-time champion Lewis Hamilton will complete some demonstration laps in his childhood idol Ayrton Senna's iconic 1990 McLaren MP4-5B, which promises to be a trip straight into nostalgia for many fans.
Forecasts and Expectations in Sao Paulo
In the last Grand Prix in Mexico, Verstappen suffered two setbacks due to penalties that ended up costing him a podium position, an opportunity that Carlos Sainz and Ferrari's Lando Norris took advantage of to take the #1 and #2 positions respectively. Charles Leclerc was positioned third and earlier in Austin, Texas took the top spot to reach third place in the overall standings with 291 points, which has implied additional pressure for Verstappen (362) and Norris (315) in their fight for the top spot.
A few hours ago, Verstappen received a penalty that penalizes him five places on the starting grid after changing his power unit, the sixth of the season. Each driver is allowed to use only four internal combustion engines, and Verstappen had already exceeded this amount previously in Belgium, where he served a ten-place penalty. With this new infringement, the consequence is a five-place grid drop.
The question now is whether the Brazilian circuit will offer sufficient overtaking opportunities to mitigate the impact of his penalty.
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With this scenario, Lando Norris starts as favorite with a +205 odds, followed by Charles Leclerc with +255, while Carlos Sainz is positioned with a +305. Oscar Piastri is further back with +715.
The bet on the winner of the Sprint shares the top 3 positions: Lando Norris +150, Charles Leclerc +305 and Carlos Sainz +515.
In future bets the favorite team to win the constructors' championship is McLaren with -215. Further down Ferrari with +150, Red Bull with +3900 and Mercedes with +80,000.
Despite not finding Verstappen among the favorites for this weekend, he remains the favorite to win the 2024 championship at odds of -600 followed by Norris at +360.
Fractions of a second can tip the balance to one side or the other, so the card is open and any scenario is possible.
Remember that the lines are dynamic and constantly changing.
