The NCAA Tournament final is here. The UConn Huskies take on the San Diego State Aztecs in a partially predictable final. While UConn's presence is not a surprise by any stretch of the imagination, San Diego State's presence is. Therefore, to say that this is the expected final is nothing more than a white lie.
An Unexpected Final
The reality is that no one expected this final despite UConn's presence. Now, it remains to be seen if the Aztecs have a miracle in store for the final. For their part, the No. 4-ranked Huskies will be playing for their fifth championship, and first since 2014. If they win, they would tie Duke for the most titles since 1985. UConn have been on this stage before, giving them a clear advantage over San Diego State.
On the other hand, this season, San Diego State advanced to its first Elite Eight, Final Four and now national championship game in program history. If Brian Dutcher's team wins, it would be the second time in history that a Final Four team has won a national championship for the first time (UConn did it in 1999), and the first time a No. 5 ranked team has taken home the trophy. There are a lot of records at stake.
Odds of Winning according to Bookmakers
At the start of the tournament, both UConn and San Diego State started with odds of +6,600 to win the NCAA Tournament. Now, the odds have changed dramatically. The clear favorite is UConn, but not by the margin many would believe.
- UConn -350
- San Diego State +290
If these odds surprise many, it's because these two teams are not as mismatched as they seem. Of course, UConn's history trumps San Diego State. After all, this is the first time the Aztecs have made it this far. Plus, San Diego State is looking to accomplish the feat that UConn will eventually achieve.
🏆We already have finalists in the #MarchMadness. In the first semifinal, San Diego State ends FAU's dream on the horn.
The Aztecs want the first championship in their history. My crónica👇🏻https://t.co/tc8KIM9Y34
- Javier Molero (@JavierMoleroo) April 2, 2023
The Pressure Is On UConn
The other side of the coin is UConn, who are looking to add one more title to their tally. The Huskies will have more pressure on them than ever, as everyone expects them to take the title. This surprising pressure may affect this team more than expected.
At the end of the day, what does San Diego State have to lose? Nothing. This season has been extremely successful. Its win over Florida Atlantic, another school looking to be Cinderella, was a milestone it may never be able to match. Meanwhile, San Diego State has already won far more than it would have expected.
But this cannot be said about Huskies.
If the Huskies were to lose to the Aztecs, the loss would be viewed as a failure despite making it all the way to the finals. Perhaps if the opponent had been a school with more pedigree such as Duke, North Carolina or Texas, expectations might be different.
One thing is certain: this final will be one of the most entertaining of the last decade.
